A decade after the UK entered into a rushed referendum that polarised the country and caused turmoil, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially contentious and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have examined the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the topic with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an highly divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is imminent, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unity has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"Many are for or against the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has gone on in academia but very few government figures or campaigners are willing to participate with even the essentials. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators advocates unity or the current situation. Both writes two pieces that aim for neutrality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling financial and societal figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments encompass flags and symbols, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," stated the writer. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters claim they support unity but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, legitimate points, he said. "One side will prevail in this matter and somebody will eventually lose but each side has has something to acquire from the opposing positions."
Request for Broader Debate
Westminster must join the debate, said the analyst. "This is about your state. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."
